TL;DR
Get business pricing on office and shipping supplies
- Business-only prices and quantity discounts
- Tax-exempt purchasing
- Multiple users, one account, clear invoices
The European Central Bank’s September Consumer Expectations Survey found a small rise in median inflation expectations for the year ahead, while longer-term expectations stayed unchanged. Respondents also expected higher income, spending and home prices, but weaker economic growth, a higher unemployment rate and tighter access to credit.
The European Central Bank’s Consumer Expectations Survey for September 2026 showed a modest rise in short-term inflation expectations alongside a more pessimistic outlook for economic growth and unemployment. Published on 23 October, the results also showed higher expected income growth, spending growth and home-price growth, while households reported a further shift toward tighter credit conditions.
Median inflation perceived over the previous 12 months rose to 3.6% from 3.5% in August. Median expected inflation over the next 12 months edged up to 3.1% from 3.0%. Longer-term expectations did not change: respondents put inflation at 2.9% three years ahead and 2.5% five years ahead, in line with the focus on longer-range expectations in the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters. The ECB said uncertainty about inflation expectations for the coming year increased slightly and remained above its level before the start of the conflict in the Middle East.
Expected nominal income growth over the next 12 months increased to 1.1% from 1.0%. Expected nominal spending growth rose to 3.7% from 3.6%, while perceived spending growth over the previous year was 5.3%, up from 5.2%. The ECB also reported differences by income: expected income growth averaged 1.5% in the bottom income quintile and 1.2% in the top quintile.
The outlook for activity weakened: expected economic growth over the next 12 months fell to -1.5% from -1.2%, and the expected unemployment rate in a year rose to 11.3% from 11.0%. On housing, expected home-price growth increased to 3.5% from 3.4%. Expected mortgage rates in 12 months remained at 4.9%, unchanged from July. The ECB said the net share of households reporting tighter access to credit, and the net share expecting tighter conditions ahead, both increased compared with August.
Households See a Split Economic Outlook
The results offer a snapshot of how consumers across the euro area view the pressures that can shape household decisions. Higher expected inflation and spending growth may affect how people plan their budgets, while weaker growth expectations and a higher anticipated unemployment rate point to greater concern about the economic outlook. These are survey responses, not forecasts confirmed by subsequent economic data.
Credit perceptions also matter because households’ ability to borrow can influence spending and housing decisions. The ECB reported a rise in the net share of respondents who said access to credit had tightened and who expected it to tighten further. The release does not quantify those shares in the supplied summary, so the size of the change cannot be stated here.
Income differences recur across several measures. Respondents in the lowest income group reported higher inflation perceptions and expectations on average than those in the highest group, and expected higher unemployment and mortgage rates. Such gaps show that the same broad economic conditions may be experienced differently across households; the survey does not establish the causes of those differences.
household budget planner notebook monthly expenses
As an affiliate, we earn on qualifying purchases.
As an affiliate, we earn on qualifying purchases.
How the ECB Survey Is Conducted
The Consumer Expectations Survey is a monthly online survey of around 19,000 adults aged 18 and older in 11 euro-area countries: Belgium, Germany, Ireland, Greece, Spain, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Austria, Portugal and Finland. The September fieldwork took place from 27 August to 28 September 2026, meaning responses were collected across both August and September.
The ECB uses the survey for policy analysis alongside other data sources. It says the results do not represent the views of its decision-making bodies or staff. The release notes that, unless otherwise specified, its statistics refer to a 2% winsorised mean; the inflation figures highlighted in the summary are described as medians. The underlying microdata and country-level aggregates are available through the ECB’s Data Portal and survey materials.
““Expectations for economic growth over the next 12 months decreased, while the expected unemployment rate in 12 months’ time increased.””
— European Central Bank, September 2026 Consumer Expectations Survey release
inflation calculator personal finance workbook
As an affiliate, we earn on qualifying purchases.
As an affiliate, we earn on qualifying purchases.
Limits of the September Survey Results
The results record what respondents expected during the survey period; they do not show whether those expectations will be borne out. The release does not provide causal explanations for the changes from August, and the increase in credit tightening is described directionally without a percentage in the supplied summary. It also does not identify how expectations changed after fieldwork ended on 28 September.
The ECB cautions that survey findings are one input for policy analysis and do not represent the views of its decision-makers or staff. Differences by income and age are averages across respondent groups, not a description of every household. The release reports that younger respondents continued to give lower inflation perceptions and expectations than older groups, but does not provide those age-group figures in the supplied text.
home energy and grocery expense tracking spreadsheet planner
As an affiliate, we earn on qualifying purchases.
As an affiliate, we earn on qualifying purchases.
October Results Due in November
The ECB scheduled publication of the October 2026 survey results for 27 November 2026. Those results will provide the next monthly comparison for inflation expectations, economic growth, employment, housing and credit access. The ECB also makes the survey’s underlying microdata and country-level aggregates available through its online data resources.
mortgage payment calculator financial planning book
As an affiliate, we earn on qualifying purchases.
As an affiliate, we earn on qualifying purchases.
Key Questions
What changed in euro-area inflation expectations in September?
Median expected inflation over the next 12 months rose to 3.1% from 3.0% in August. Expectations three and five years ahead were unchanged at 2.9% and 2.5%, respectively.
What did respondents expect for economic growth and unemployment?
Expected economic growth over the next 12 months declined to -1.5% from -1.2%. The expected unemployment rate in a year increased to 11.3% from 11.0%.
Did households expect higher housing costs?
Respondents expected home prices to rise by 3.5% over the next 12 months, up from 3.4% in August. Expected mortgage rates in 12 months remained at 4.9%, unchanged from July.
When will the ECB publish the next survey results?
The ECB scheduled release of its October 2026 results for 27 November 2026.
Source: primary
Halloween Picks
halloween
As an affiliate, we earn on qualifying purchases.
