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Former U.S. sanctions official Edward Fishman told the Mining Forum Americas that Washington needs Canadian and Australian mining expertise to reduce dependence on Chinese minerals. He warned that antagonizing Canada could undermine that effort, even as trade disputes strain relations with allies. The forum also highlighted U.S.-focused projects by Centerra Gold and Hecla Mining.
Former U.S. sanctions official Edward Fishman warned at the Mining Forum Americas in Colorado Springs on Monday that Washington’s hostility toward Canada could make it harder for the United States to reduce its dependence on Chinese minerals. He said the United States has the capital and political will to invest in mineral supplies, but needs Canadian and Australian mining expertise to develop them.
Fishman, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and a former Obama administration official, said closer work with allies would strengthen U.S. economic security. He argued that the United States cannot break its dependence on China without Canadian participation. The warning points to a conflict between the goal of securing mineral supply and strained relations with an important neighboring ally.
Fishman said mining has become central to economic competition, alongside areas such as finance and technology. He compared China’s influence through mineral processing with Washington’s influence over dollar payments and advanced technology. Rare earth magnets illustrate the concentration: China accounted for 91% of global refined output in 2024, versus 60% of mined production, according to the International Energy Agency. The agency said Chinese export controls introduced in April last year disrupted magnet supplies and led some automakers to cut or temporarily halt production.
Companies at the forum described projects tied to North American supply. Centerra Gold is restarting its Thompson Creek molybdenum mine in Idaho to supply its Langeloth processing facility in Pennsylvania. Its latest quarterly results put first mine production at mid-2027 and estimated restart capital at $425 million to $450 million. CEO Paul Tomory said U.S. steel production growth could benefit the company’s business. Hecla Mining CEO Rob Krcmarov, whose company operates silver mines in Alaska, Idaho and Yukon, said operating in lower-risk jurisdictions provides more security for future cash flows and production.
Allied Expertise Shapes U.S. Supply Plans
The remarks matter to miners and investors because mineral projects require long lead times, large commitments of capital and dependable routes to customers and processors. Fishman said competition over supply chains is likely to remain a business concern across administrations, even as President Donald Trump emphasizes tariffs and economic pressure against both allies and adversaries. Companies weighing where to build or process output may have to account for trade relations as well as geology and project economics.
Centerra’s Idaho-to-Pennsylvania plan shows one way a Canadian company can serve U.S. industrial demand. Molybdenum strengthens steel used in energy infrastructure, defence and aerospace, according to the report. Hecla’s comments make a separate point: the company sees operations in lower-risk jurisdictions as a source of more predictable production and cash flow. These company statements describe their own business views, rather than proving that any particular project will achieve a target return.
Fishman also cautioned that dividing the world economy into competing blocs could raise energy costs, add to inflation and create uncertainty. For governments, the choices involve a balance: reducing exposure to supply disruptions may improve security, while efforts to separate supply chains can bring wider economic costs. Mining companies, he said, can help policymakers set targets that reflect operational realities.
China’s position in rare earth processing is considerably stronger than its share of mined production, according to the figures Fishman cited from the International Energy Agency. That distinction matters because extracting ore does not by itself provide refined material ready for industrial use. The agency’s account of export controls last April shows how restrictions on processed products can affect manufacturers downstream, including automakers.
Fishman said successive U.S. administrations have expanded the use of economic pressure, suggesting that companies should not treat supply-chain competition as a short-lived feature of the current presidency. His remarks link that competition to policy choices affecting trade and investment, while stressing the role of allied skills in developing mines and related supply. The report does not detail a specific U.S.-Canada minerals agreement or a new government program announced at the forum.
Centerra’s Thompson Creek restart and Hecla’s existing mines were examples discussed at the event, not announcements of a joint U.S.-Canadian plan. Centerra has also remained open to an initial public offering or separation of its molybdenum business, Tomory said, while declining to rush a transaction at the expense of shareholder value. Hecla said it plans to grow through assets it already owns, giving it control over the pace of investment without depending on acquisitions.
““If we are going to antagonize Canada, it’s going to be virtually impossible for us to get out of this dependence from China. We can’t do it. We, as in the United States, cannot do it without the Canadians.””
— Edward Fishman, Council on Foreign Relations senior fellow
Supply Targets and Policy Choices Remain Open
Fishman said governments still need to define what a secure mineral supply means. Eliminating dependence on China would be a different goal from reducing it to a level policymakers consider acceptable, and the report gives no agreed target, timetable or set of minerals for such a target. It also does not specify what steps Washington or Ottawa might take to repair strained relations.
The longer-term effects of trade measures on investment and prices remain uncertain. Fishman warned that competing economic blocs could bring higher energy costs, inflation and uncertainty, but the report does not quantify those effects. The rare earth production and disruption figures cited by the International Energy Agency describe particular measures and a specific year; they do not establish the scale or duration of future disruptions.
Centerra’s stated production target is for mid-2027, with restart capital estimated at $425 million to $450 million. The report does not provide a revised construction schedule, final costs or details of a potential IPO or separation. Nor does it give financial forecasts for the project. Those items remain company plans or possibilities, not completed outcomes.
Mine Restart and Allied Talks Ahead
The next project milestone identified in the report is first production at Thompson Creek, targeted for mid-2027. Centerra’s progress and spending against its estimated restart capital will show how its plans develop. Tomory said the company remains open to an IPO or separation of the molybdenum business, but has not committed to a transaction or timetable.
At the policy level, Fishman called for mining companies to help governments set realistic security targets and explain how proposed measures would affect operations. The report does not identify a scheduled policy decision or bilateral meeting following the forum, so it remains unclear when or how officials will act on his warning. Fishman expressed optimism that U.S. reliance on Canadian resources gives both countries a reason to repair their relationship, while the forum discussion left the practical path to closer cooperation unresolved.
Key Questions
What did Edward Fishman warn about?
Fishman said U.S. hostility toward Canada could undermine efforts to reduce dependence on Chinese minerals, because the United States needs Canadian expertise to develop mineral supplies.
How much of the world’s refined rare earth output came from China in 2024?
The International Energy Agency figures cited in the report put China’s share of global refined rare earth output at 91% in 2024, compared with 60% of mined production.
What is Centerra Gold planning at Thompson Creek?
Centerra is restarting its molybdenum mine in Idaho to supply its Langeloth processing facility in Pennsylvania. The company targets first mine production for mid-2027 and estimates restart capital at $425 million to $450 million.
Did the forum announce a new U.S.-Canada minerals agreement?
The report describes Fishman’s call for closer cooperation and company presentations about North American mining operations. It does not report an announced bilateral agreement or government program.
Source: rss
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